MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-06T00:19:33
High energy electron flux showed little response to the high speed stream on the previous rotation, so using persistence, a similar trend is expected on this occasion. Flux levels are therefore expected to be at background to moderate levels.
Corresponding electron fluence values are forecast to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level through the next 4 days, but with a rising trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-07-06T00:19:33 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |