Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-07T00:00:49

The current high speed stream has been in course long enough to enable electron flux to stabilise, and although slightly more marked than of late, it has fallen well short of breaching Active 24-hour electron fluence. REFM is thought to be over-sensitive in this respect in its relentless upward trend, with a plateau in current background to moderate diurnal oscillations of flux instead preferred (i.e. less than 1000pfu). The recurrence-persistence model is felt to be more realistic in this respect, with its small-scale gradual increase from 1 to 4% risk of Active fluence over the four-day period.