help
Home HOME
 
month‹‹‹ week‹‹ day‹ ›››month ››week ›day
 

MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-05T00:26:01

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels are expected to continue the current pattern of background to moderate levels, with significant decreases due to a periods of heightened geomagnetic activity. This is despite the onset of the high speed stream from coronal hole 55, as the equivalent hole on the previous rotation produced very little input into the electron values.

With very little input from electron flux expected, fluence levels are not expected to reach Active levels (1e8 integrated pfu), but with an increasing risk through the period.


 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2020-07-05T00:26:01
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 5% 1%
Day 2 10% 1%
Day 3 20% 1%
Day 4 20% 1%