Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-21T00:01:43

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is forecast to continue at mainly background levels during the next couple of days, with increases to moderate during the diurnal peaks. The possible increase in wind speeds to 450-500 km/s during Day 3 (23 July) may give an increase in electron flux, but it is unlikely to reach high levels.

The associated electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. Whilst there is likely to be a rising trend in electron levels through the forecast period, the fluence is currently well below the Active threshold and is unlikely to reach this level. This is supported by the REFM forecast and 27-day recurrence.