MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-22T00:23:59
The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has persisted at mainly background levels, and is expected to remain at this level until at least day 3 (24th). The arrival of a weak CME on day 3, coupled with any enhancement from the fast wind of coronal hole 62, has the potential to bring Moderate, perhaps isolated High election flux levels, potentially exceeding the 1000 pfu alert by day 4 (25th).
The associated high energy (greater than 2 MeV) 24-hour fluence is expected to remain at background levels with REFM giving a good guide through the day 3. Fluence levels are then expected to rise into day 4 (25th), with a slight chance of reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold by the end of the day.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-07-22T00:23:59 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |