Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-23T00:07:16

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is forecast to continue at background to moderate levels on days 1 and 2 (23rd & 24th). There is then a low chance of rising to near the 1000 pfu Alert level from day 3 (25th), due to a combination of high speed stream effects from negative coronal hole 62, and possible CME arrival.

Corresponding electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but likely to see a rising trend by day 3. Current MOSWOC REFM data maintains fluence values well below active levels, but doesn't model the anticipated high speed stream and CME effects, and hence the expected increasing trend.