MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-24T00:13:54
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels are forecast to remain around background to moderate levels for much of the time. An increase to high levels is possible during day 4 due to a combination of any weak high speed stream influence from coronal hole 62, plus CME effects.
Electron fluence values are forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level on days 1 and 2. A trend for increasing levels is the forecast through days 3 and 4, due to increasing flux levels, but the fluence is unlikely to reach the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-07-24T00:13:54 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |