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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-31T00:00:36

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is diurnally cycling between background and moderate levels and is expected to continue in this pattern throughout the forecast period. There is, however, a chance of a brief period where flux levels could exceed 1000 pfu on day 4, in response to the connection with the high speed stream from coronal hole 64. This is a low probability though, given the lack of electron response observed on the previous rotation. 

Corresponding electron fluence values are at background levels and are expected to remain at this level through the period, though with perhaps a rising trend on day 4 (02 Aug) in line with REFM expectations.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2020-07-31T00:00:36
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 1% 1%
Day 3 1% 1%
Day 4 1% 1%