MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-01T00:16:58
With no significant enhancements to the solar wind expected, electron counts are forecast to remain low through the period, maintaining generally background levels of high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV). Corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout, supported by both the REFM forecast and 27-day recurrence figures. The recurrence-persistence model has low single-figure percentage values.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-07-01T00:16:58 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |