Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-07-25T00:12:02

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to remain at background to moderate levels, with low chance of reach high (1e3pfu) during days 2 to 4 due to coronal hole and CME effects. The corresponding fluence may rise a little, but is unlikely to reach Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). The REFM 3-day forecast and 27-day recurrence both support the low trend. The recurrence-persistence model has probabilities of only 1 to 4 percent for exceeding the threshold. Although the model doesn't take into account the possible influence of the CME. But so far the solar wind has not risen strongly, and so it is unlikely there will be a strong response in the Van Allen belts.