MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-08-26T00:00:57
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV), as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background, but may become slightly enhanced to moderate on day 2, depending upon the strength of the connection with coronal hole 71. However, the electron flux should become suppressed on days 3 and 4, in conjunction with the arrival of the combined HSS from CH72 and CH73.
The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold but may show an increasing trend on day 2 (27th), as suggested by the latest MOSWOC REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-08-26T00:00:57 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |