MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-25T00:16:13
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to oscillated diurnally between moderate or High (1e3pfu) levels, with an increasing likelihood of remaining above the High threshold from day 3 (27th). A similar pattern occurred during the previously rotation. Electron fluence values are forecast to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold from either late today, or more likely tomorrow, and then remain above Active for the rest of the period.
24 hours electron fluence values are forecast to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold from possibly late today, or more likely tomorrow.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-09-25T00:16:13 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 100% | 10% |