Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-24T00:18:58

The high energy (>2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background. The solar wind is expected to become enhanced under the influence of various coronal hole features through the period, leading to increased electron flux. This potentially rising above the alert threshold day 2 (25th), but with increased confidence of high, or potentially very high peak flux values by day 4 (27th). There will still be periods of subdued flux being observed, however, due to occasional periods of elevated geomagnetic activity. 

The associated 24-hour high energy electron fluence will also respond, likely rising above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold day 4 (27th). Although the potential for geomagnetic activity does give some uncertainty. This rising trend is supported by REFM, and also 27-day persistence, where similar enhancements were observed on the previous rotation.