MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-17T00:01:18
The high energy (greater the 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16, has remained at background levels during the last 24 hours. With no significant solar wind enhancements forecast, these background levels are expected to persist through the period.
The associated 24 hour fluence will therefore remain below the Active level (1e8 integrated pfu) This is supported by REFM, although the currently depicted rising trend is not anticipated.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-09-17T00:01:18 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |