Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-01T00:19:16

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 is currently High (above 1000 pfu), and generally expected to remain at this level for much of the period, although with a very gradual declining trend in peak values. Brief spells below the Active threshold are possible during diurnal minimums. These high flux values were the result of a returning coronal hole, CH82, which brought periods of minor to moderate geomagnetic activity. On the previous solar rotation, it then took 11 days from peak flux for levels to fall to be persistently below the Active threshold, and a similar progression is possible on this occasion. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently Very Active (above 1e9 integrated pfu). After an initial slight rise on day 1 (1st), this fluence is expected to gradually decline through the period, likely falling below this threshold day 2 (2nd). However, it is expected to stay Active (above 1e8 integrated pfu). REFM is currently over estimating values, especially beyond T+24, with a gradual decline more likely.