Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-02T00:10:05

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 is currently diurnally varying within the High level (1000-50000pfu), and is expected to be nearing its peak as a result of the high speed stream of coronal hole 82. Today and tomorrow the electron flux is expected to remain High, then from day 3 (4th) occasionally decreasing to moderate flux levels during the variations of the diurnal cycle.

It is expected that the corresponding 24-hour integrated fluence remain well above the Active threshold (above 1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the forecast period, after starting at Very Active levels (above 1e9 integrated pfu). A gradual decline in the electron count is expected, in line with the previous rotation, which gives a 60% chance of the Very Active level being reached again tomorrow (3rd).

The Met Office REFM model is in agreement with keeping the fluence above the Active threshold throughout, but is considered overdone for the actual fluence values, with a plateau of the current Very High levels, followed by a gradual decline of the fluence, more likely. The recurrence-persistence model offers also shows a gradual decline in the probability of Very Active fluence levels.