Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-01T00:26:32

The >2MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 fell sharply from initial high levels, below the alert (1000 pfu threshold at 31/1700 UTC) and then persisted at background to moderate levels. This was likely caused by the weak CME arrival, as previously anticipated. Electron counts are now not expected to recover significantly, likely remaining mostly below the alert threshold through the period, but perhaps reaching this level with diurnal peak values. 

The associated electron fluence is forecast to be initially just above the Active value, but likely falling below Active early on day 1 (1st). With no further enhancements anticipated, these background levels are then expected to persist.  This is supported by REFM which is given a good indication of the expected trend.