Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-24T00:29:21

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed at GOES-16 has varied between background and moderate levels. This is likely to increase erractically over the next four days, increasingly reaching high (1e3 pfu|) levels due to the onset of the coronal hole high speed streams. However there is likely to be brief, but sharp reductions in association with any significant geomagnetic activity, especially due to the onset of CH90/+ on day 2 (25 Oct). Following the onset of the high speed stream from this feature the electron flux may even reach very high (1e4pfu) levels.

Corresponding electron fluence is expected to show a rising trend throughout the forecast period. Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels may be reached during day 1 (24 Oct) but more likely from day 2 (25 Oct).