Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-23T00:13:52

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES16 at GEO is currently at moderate levels, but is expected to rise in response to the fast wind from coronal hole 96. On the previous rotation this led to observed electron flux increasing to become persistently high for a number of days, and similar conditions are likely through the forecast period.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is therefore expected to continue climbing, and expected to rise above the active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during day 1 (23rd). Active fluence is then expected to persist through much of the rest of the forecast period. This is confirmed by latest MOSWOC REFM data, which is currently under-forecasting fluence levels.