Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-23T00:11:37

The current background to moderate levels of high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), are expected to become moderate to high through the period under continuing high speed stream influences. However, any significant geomagnetic activity on days 1 and 2 (23rd & 24th) is likely to bring temporary electron re-distributions. 

Associated 24-hour fluence values will start the period well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu), but with a rising trend from day 2 onwards. This brings an increased chance of exceeding the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) through the period. Current REFM data may not be good guidance at this stage, with values biased towards those on the previous rotation when the coronal hole was smaller, and with a weaker high speed stream than anticipated at Earth this time around.