MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-24T00:18:32
Levels of high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), are likely to be moderate to high through the period under continuing high speed stream influences. However, any significant geomagnetic activity on day 1 (24th) could result in temporary electron re-distributions with a reduction in activity.
Associated 24-hour fluence values starting the period below the Active (Moderate) threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with a rising trend. This brings an increasing chance of exceeding the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) through the period. MOSWOC REFM data is now offering reasonable guidance for the overall upward trend in the coming days but may be under-playing the forthcoming rise in values.
The observed fluence value at 24/0000UTC was 1.39e7 integrated pfu.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-12-24T00:18:32 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 60% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 20% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 10% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 5% |