Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-25T00:00:25

Levels of high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) have been fluctuating between moderate and high over the past 24 hours, reaching its peak during the diurnal cycle. However, the levels rose surprisingly late, something like 36 hours after the onset of the high speed stream, with values slightly inferior to what they were on the last rotation, most likely due to a weak connection with CH07. Although the high energy electron flux is expected to continue fluctuating between moderate and high, its peak is expected to gradually decrease, reducing the chances of seeing the corresponding 24-hour electron fluence to exceed the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).

Despite a higher energy electron flux, the Active threshold was not met on the last rotation so there is little chance it is going to materialise during this rotation and the probabilities have therefore been considerably lowered compared to the previous forecast. The latest MOSWOC REFM output is not considered to offer good guidance, with values vastly over-estimated and the overall upward trend unrealistic.

 Observed fluence value at 24/0000UTC was 1.39e7 integrated pfu.