Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-24T00:18:17

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to persist at background levels for at least the next 24 hours. The current CH-like regime observed is not expected to have a significant effect on electron counts. Any enhancement due to CH17/- is likely to occur from Day 2 (25th January) onwards, with the flux perhaps increasing to Moderate levels, and possibly reaching High (greater than 1000 pfu) briefly during diurnal maxima.

The associated electron fluence is currently well below the Active threshold on a level trend, and is expected to remain as such given the lack of significant solar features to cause any increase until CH17/-. Even with this feature arriving the chances of exceeding the Moderate fluence threshold are considered Slight, perhaps 10% by Day 4 (27th January) which is similar to that offered by the MOSWOC recurrence-persistence model. REFM's three-day forecast also remains unmoved to add weight to the muted forecast response.