Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-23T00:15:11

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is at high (1e3pfu) levels peaking at 9240pfu at 22/1555 UTC, with the associated fluence also above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold due to the continuing high speed stream effects from coronal hole 27. Although the effects of the coronal hole are expected to wane by day 3 (25 Feb), electron flux levels remained moderate or high for 5 or 6 days during the previous cycle 27 days ago. A similar trend was observed in the electron fluence levels. 

Moderate or high electron flux values are therefore expected through the next 4 days, with reductions possible on day 1 (23 Feb) due to any brief intervals of enhanced geomagnetic activity. Electron fluence is expected to stay above the Active threshold through the forecast period, and this is reflected in the relatively high probability values in the table above.