MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-24T00:29:04
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue at mainly high (1e3pfu) levels through the next four days, but with decreasing diurnal peaks. This is based on persistence from the previous rotation, which appears valid given that the coronal hole high speed stream has behaved in a similar pattern on both rotations.
Electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold through the forecast period, but as the high speed stream is now waning, the Very Active threshold is unlikely to be exceeded.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-02-24T00:29:04 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 1% |