Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-26T00:18:20

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is now expected to be at Background to Moderate levels over the next few days with an increased chance of reaching High levels again from day 3 (28th), depending on the arrival of a high speed stream from CH37. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold for most of the period, then possibly increasing above Active for days 3 or 4.

The Met Office REFM model is considered to be offering good guidance, in that the Active threshold is not reached during days 1-3. However, an increasing trend in the fluence is expected, which is not indicated by the model at this time.