Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-19T00:10:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at predominantly moderate levels today, but possibly temporarily breaching the high threshold (1000 pfu) at the peak of the diurnal cycle today. The high energy flux levels are then expected to decrease to background levels overnight tonight and into tomorrow (20th) as increased geomagnetic activity compresses the magnetopause and significantly reduces electron counts. A recovery to moderate to high levels is then likely during day 3 (21st) and especially for day 4 (22nd).

Fluence levels will start below the Active threshold (e8 integrated pfu) today (19th), before recovering and rising above the threshold late in the forecast period.  

The Met Office REFM model is currently close to observed values, and the decreasing trend shown for today is excepted, and with a generally level trend for tomorrow. However, later during day 3 more pronounced rising trend is expected.