Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-20T00:04:04

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently at moderate levels but is expected to fall to background levels through day 1 (20th) as increased geomagnetic activity compresses the Earth's magnetic field, significantly reducing electron counts. A recovery to high levels is expected over the following days, perhaps persisting at this level. Corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to rise above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) by day 3 (22nd).

The latest Met Office REFM output is considered to underestimate the expected electron levels over the next 4 days. However, the 27-day recurrence is considered to provide good guidance, with levels expected to be similar to those observed during the previous rotation.