Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-17T00:17:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 satellite at GEO are expected to stay at mainly background levels. With the recent slight enhancement given to the solar winds from the HSS over the past few hours a muted response is anticipated with electron flux values becoming moderate during the diurnal peak over the next 2 or 3 days but there is no likely prospect for levels to breach the (high) Alert level (1e3pfu).

As such it remains very unlikely that the electron fluence will reach the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) during this period, and this is reflected in the very low probabilities in the table above, and this is supported by the Met Office Recurrence-Persistence Electron Forecast Model which is currently giving 0% probabilities for the next four days. The Met Office REFM 3-day forecast continues to display a relatively flat trend below the Active level, and is currently thought to be giving good advice.