Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-10T00:21:00

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) may display an increasing trend following the recent solar wind enhancement, perhaps reaching the Alert threshold (1e3 pfu) at diurnal peaks. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is therefore expected to respond with an increase, but low confidence in breaching the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). At present it is subdued, possibly because of ongoing compression of the magnetopause from the elevated solar wind. A breach above is considered possible as opposed to probable at this time over the next 4-days.

The REFM model suggests a rise above the threshold for Days 2 and 3, which is considered possible. The 27-day recurrence was below the threshold, but solar winds on the previous rotation were lower, thus not considered to be representative of this rotation. The recurrence-persistence model has single figure probabilities, which is considered too low.