Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-12T00:30:24

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has exhibited a diurnal variation between Moderate and High levels over the last few days, and this is likely to continue on day 1 (12th) and perhaps day 2 (13th), although peak values are likely to fall. The arrival of the fast wind from coronal hole 32 perhaps on day 1 or 2 will likely lead to flux values dropping out to background levels for a time, before a further rise to Moderate and potentially High levels between days 2 (13th) and 4 (15th). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but probably rising later day 2 and likely reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level during day 3 and 4 (14th and 15th). REFM supports background levels persisting for the next 2 days, though is underestimating flux levels at present, giving some uncertainty for the coming days.