Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-05T00:05:28

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain above the High threshold (1000 pfu) for much of the forecast period, apart for temporarily decreasing below the threshold through tomorrow due to enhanced geomagnetic activity. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is likely to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for most of the time, but may decrease below the Active level tomorrow, before rising above again on Day 3 (7th).  

This is supported by the Met Office REFM 3-day forecast, which keeps fluence levels above the Active threshold, although currently the model is over estimating the fluence levels. The recurrence-persistence model has probabilities falling from high levels through the period (67% today falling to 20% by Day 4).