Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-06T00:47:31

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to stay above the High threshold (1000 pfu) for much of the forecast period. Electron flux is expected to experience sudden decreases on day 1, due to enhanced geomagnetic activity, but it should be able to recover quite quickly, with the corresponding 24-hour fluence likely to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for most of the time. There may be a decreasing trend on day 2 (07th) but this trend should stabilise or perhaps rise slightly on days 3 and 4 (08th and 09th).   

This is supported by the Met Office REFM 3-day forecast, which keeps fluence levels above the Active threshold.