Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-04T00:14:03

High energy electron flux levels at GEO are likely to reach moderate to high levels through the diurnal cycle over the next few days, as electron counts increase through the waning of the high speed stream from CH19. However, a return to more general background levels is expected on day 4 (7th) as electrons are re-distributed due to anticipated geomagnetic activity.

Corresponding 24-hour high energy fluence levels are likely to follow a rising trend through to day 4 (7th), as indicated by the MOSWOC REFM Model, but likely remaining below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. A more general decrease in values would then be expected by the end of day 4.