Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-03T00:05:16

Increased geomagnetic activity led to a reduction in electron flux, but this then recovered to moderate levels on the diurnal peak. A further gradual increase is likely for a time in the next couple of days, with a chance of reaching high (1e3 pfu) levels during the diurnal peak. However, during the last rotation and under similar geomagnetic enhancements, the electron flux remained at background to moderate levels. The corresponding 24-hour fluence will start at background levels, then likely followed by a slow rising trend on days 1 and 2 (3rd and 4th). However, fluence is expected to stay well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, which is also confirmed by the latest REFM output.