Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-05T00:07:00

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as measured by GOES16 is currently varying between normal background and moderate levels. No significant enhancements are anticipated during the forecast period, despite the arrival of the fast wind from coronal hole 22, due to associated slightly increased geomagnetic activity.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is expected to remain at this level through the period. This is supported by REFM until T+24, however beyond this the model should be disregarded. as this currently shows an increase that is not anticipated.