MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-06T00:25:41
There is an increasing risk of the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) reaching the high (1e3 pfu) threshold through the forecast period, in response to the high speed stream.
Consequently 24 hour fluence levels are also forecast to follow a rising trend from day 2 onward, but are expected to stay below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-01-06T00:25:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |