Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-26T00:10:41

A recent succession of Active geomagnetic intervals and consecutive compression of the Van Allen belt has resulted in a significant dropout of the high energy electron flux. The flux recovered partially over the last 24 hours, falling short of reaching High levels, at 972 pfu at 25/1750 UTC. With no further geomagnetic enhancements expected over the following days, the flux is expected to resume its course and exceed high levels on day 1 (26th), before gradually decreasing thereafter as solar winds continue their initial decline. However, this dropout may well be synonym of electron losses, irreversible and permanent. This would lead to an electron flux remaining at background to moderate levels, similar to what we've seen in the last 24 hours. 

There is therefore a high degree of uncertainty but on balance, the fluence is still likely to exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on day 1 (26th), followed by a slow decline the following days. This is supported by the latest REFM output.