Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-25T00:04:05

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently below the high (1e3pfu) threshold after the recent slightly enhanced geomagnetic activity. However, because of the recent HSS originating coronal hole 27, along with the weak CME arrival, the high energy flux is expected to return above the high threshold, especially during the diurnal peaks over the next couple of days. From day 3 (27th) the flux levels are expected to return to background levels. This is based on persistence from the previous rotation, which appears valid given that the coronal hole high speed stream has behaved in a similar pattern on both rotations.

Corresponding fluence values are expected to stay above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) through today and tomorrow (25th & 26th), before falling below the Active threshold during day 3 (27th). The Met Office REFM model therefore appears to be offering reasonable guidance.