Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-28T00:07:07

The high energy electron forecast is of greater than average uncertainty for the period. This is due to significant changes between this rotation and the last in the succession of coronal holes expected to affect Earth's solar wind speed during the next four days. This means persistence models are expected to be of limited use in the period, with REFM actually signalling a decline in electron levels over the next 3 days. The recurrence-persistence model is however signalling an increase later in the period.

Speaking therefore in terms of an over-arching trend, the trajectory of electron populations ought to be upward over the coming four days, probably with several hiatuses as the van Allen belts compress and recover, but peaking after the arrival of the final coronal hole (CH38/-) on Day 3 (30 March). The resultant 24-hour integrated fluence is therefore most likely to reach Active levels on Day 4 (31 March).