MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-27T00:15:48
Residual effects of the 22 Apr CME and coronal hole influences early in the period renders guidance from the recurrence-persistence model and REFM of limited value. Slightly elevated to elevated solar winds to start may bring an increase in electron counts through days 1 and 2 (27th & 28th), and a commensurate increase in 24 hour integrated fluence, but this unlikely to reach the Active (>1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through this period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-04-27T00:15:48 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |