Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-04T00:16:57

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is currently at normal background levels. Any solar wind enhancement from CH51 on day 1 (4 May), has the potential to enhance flux to some degree, perhaps briefly reaching high at the diurnal maximum from day 2 (5 May) onwards. Otherwise flux is expected to continue diurnally varying from normal background to moderate.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout, although a rising trend is likely by the end of the period. Below Active fluence is supported by REFM, output, although the rising trend currently looks overdone.