Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-05T00:11:22

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux may reach high levels at the diurnal maximum through days 1 and 2 (5th & 6th) as electron counts from the waning high speed stream of positive coronal hole 51 increase a little, otherwise generally background to moderate levels expected through much of this period.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, although with a rising trend through to day 3 (7th). This is supported by latest REFM data, with actual values agreeing well with the forecast over the past 24 hours.