Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-06T00:02:02

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux may rise a little on days 1 and 2 (6th and 7th) following recent weak high speed stream influence, however diurnal peaks considered unlikely to breach the high threshold. Otherwise, generally background to moderate levels expected through the period.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, although with a slight rising trend likely through the first two days of the period, and this is indicated by latest REFM data, which is considered good guidance.