MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-13T00:17:01
Mainly background electron flux is likely on Day 1 (12 May) with an increase to above the Alert level (1e3pfu) likely from Day 2 to 4 (14 to 16 May), especially at the diurnal maxima. Electron fluence levels are likely to rise towards the end of the period, to above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during Days 3 and 4 (15 and 16 May).
The REFM model at present is still struggling to capture this projected rise, although the previous cycles had a rise to above the Active levels on Day 3 and 4. The recurrence-persistence model has a rise in probabilities, but suggesting possible breach of the Active threshold as opposed to likely.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-05-13T00:17:01 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |