MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-12T00:11:24
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will remain at background levels. The corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to stay well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is supported by the Met Office REFM 3-day forecast, and from the 27-day recurrence. The recurrence-persistence model is also showing very low probabilities of reaching the Active threshold through the forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-06-12T00:11:24 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |