Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-12T00:14:20

High-energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at Normal Background levels initially, but should respond in the wake of the high speed stream from CH75 and 76 towards midweek.

On last rotation, flux levels breached High after onset, and were able to sustain Active 24-hour integrated fluence for a further five days before waning in the nominal solar wind regime that followed. Similar is expected on this pass, with Active fluence becoming Likely for Wednesday 14 July and beyond, perhaps continuing into the forthcoming weekend (UTC).

MOSWOC model output is considered to be a little sluggish in reacting to the forthcoming high speed streams' effects, with the recurrence-persistence model offering 30% chance of Active by day four, and REFM only showing a slight rise to near 1e7 integrated pfu for the first three days of the period (its maximum range). Both are considered to be underestimates of the expected reaction in flux and fluence, with significantly higher probabilities proffered in their place.