Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-11T00:13:57

High-energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at mainly background levels through Day 1 and much of Day 2 (11-12 July) with just slightly elevated solar wind speeds. The expected onset of the combined high speed stream from CH75/- and CH76/- is likely to initially subdue flux values due to distortion of radiation belts through Day 2. It is then likely that we will see an increase in electron flux levels to High through Days 3 and 4 (13-14 July) as the radiation belts rebound and are charging from the high speed stream.

Electron fluence values are currently well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but an increasing trend is likely, especially through Days 3 and 4. There is a chance that the Active threshold will be reached by the end of Day 4. The REFM model is showing a slight increasing trend by the end of Day 3, although still below the Active threshold. The recurrence-persistence model has a 36% chance of reaching Active by Day 4.