Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-10T00:15:19

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain near Normal Background levels in this period, with the current enhancement not expected to prove capable of any isgnificant movement in the current diurnal trend.

While a slight upturn in 24-hour electron fleunce is possible in the period, Active fluence is highly unlikely to be attained, as suggested by current REFM and recurrence-persistence model output, with the former suggesting levels below 5e6 for the next three days, and the latter offering less than 5% chance of Active fluence for the whole period.