Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-03T00:25:58

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently reaching Moderate levels (100-1000pfu) at the diurnal maxima. Wind speeds are largely expected to be at background levels through the next four days, although an increase to slightly elevated levels is possible at times. However, this is unlikely to drive significant further increases in electron flux levels. As such, flux levels are expected to be on a largely steady trend during much of this period with only a low risk of reaching High levels.

Resultant 24-hour integrated fluence is therefore also expected to be on a steady or perhaps slight increasing trend, but is expected to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.